极移时间序列模型的拟合与预测

Fitting and Prediction of Pole Motion Time Series Model

对IERS提供的极移数据进行了余弦趋势模型及ARMA模型拟合和预测。对实验结果进行分析,发现余弦趋势模型适合对极移成分进行分析;同时,ARMA模型适合对极移时间序列进行拟合及预测,其拟合精度相对于余弦趋势模型有较大提高,预测精度接近国际最好水平。

The cosine trend model and ARMA model for pole motion have been fitted and forecasted under the use of the data offered by IERS. Through the analysis of the experimen- tal results, we find the cosine trend model more suitable for analyzing the components of the pole motion. Meanwhile, ARMA model is more suitable for fitting pole motion time series, its fitting accuracy is higher than the cosine trend model and its prediction accuracy have reached an advanced level.