三峡水库淤积计算预测与原型实测结果比较分析

Comparison of Sedimentation in Three Gorges Reservoir between Calculated Prediction and Prototype Measurement

在分析三峡工程蓄水运行10 a以来水库淤积规律的基础上,对长江科学院在三峡工程初步设计、技术设计以及三峡后续工作规划等不同阶段的水库淤积预测成果与三峡工程蓄水运行以来库区淤积量、淤积分布以及排沙比的实测结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,各阶段预测的水库淤积规律与实测的相同,由于预测采用的入库水沙条件及水库运用方式与三峡工程运用以来实际发生的差别较大,因此预测的库区淤积量及排沙比较实测的大,如近似将预测采用的入库水沙条件换算至与实际发生的相近时,则预测成果与实测值接近,表明预测采用的数学模型及预测成果是可靠的。今后需进一步研究揭示水库泥沙运动机理,改进和完善预测模型,并随着实测资料的积累,对数学模型进行不断地率定与改进,以提高预测精度。

On the basis of analyzing the sedimentation regularity since the operation of Three Gorges Reservoir, we made a comparison between the measured sedimentation （ in terms of amount, distribution and sediment delivery ra- tio） and the sedimentation predicted by models developed by Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute during the initial design, technical design, and follow-up planning stage. Results reveal that the predicted regularity of sedi- mentation is consistent with the measured value. When the incoming flow and sediment conditions and reservoir op- eration modes in the prediction are different from the actual conditions, the predicted sediment amount and delivery ratio are larger than the measured values; while when the prediction conditions are approximate to the actual condi- tions, the predicted values are close to measured values, which indicates that the prediction models and results are reliable. To increase the prediction accuracy, the mechanism of sediment transport should be further revealed, and the prediction models should be improved and checked based on measured data accumulation.