基于GM(1,1)模型的时段年平均降水量预测——以宁夏隆德县为例

The period time forecast of average annual precipitation based on GM(1,1)model——A case study of Ningxia Longde County basin

利用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型对隆德县时段年平均降水量进行了预测,经过残差检验证明所建模型具有可行性和适应性,以及用已有的实测数据检验所建模型精度满足预报要求,并预测了未来4个时段年平均降水量.预测结果为研究区域的水资源规划提供了依据.

Forecasted Period Average Annual Precipitation of the Longde County by using gray system theory GM （1,1） model, it has proved that model has feasibility and adaptability through residual test, and the measured data with the existing test the model accuracy to meet the forecast requirements, and predicted the average annual precipitation of the future four times Forecast results provide a basis for the study area water resources planning.