美联储量化宽松货币政策实施效果及对中国的启示——基于托宾Q理论的货币政策传导机制视角

Enlightenment of Fed's QE Monetary Policy on China's Monetary Policy——Based on the Perspective of the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy based on Tobin's Q Theory

本文首先基于托宾Q理论的货币政策传导机制视角,对美联储量化宽松货币政策的实施效果进行分析,然后对金融危机以来中国企业托宾Q值、货币政策及经济走势进行梳理总结,探索对我国当前货币政策走向的启示意义,最后得出以下结论:美联储的四次量化宽松货币政策,进一步保持了资本市场融资功能,刺激创新型企业融资,起到了恢复市场信心、复苏房地产市场、推动产业结构调整和经济增长的作用。在我国,随着股票市场在货币经济中的作用日益增强,托宾Q值逐步显现。2007年以来在中国人民银行实施偏紧的货币政策下,我国有效抵御了国际金融危机冲击。2013年上半年中国经济继续稳定增长,但部分宏观经济指标呈下滑趋势,金融市场资金持续紧缺,热钱压境,股市低迷,潜在的风险不容忽视。纵观时下的国内外经济政策环境,我国可以考虑推出适度宽松的货币政策,推进利率市场化,这不仅有利于缩小人民币与美元利差,抵御境外热钱冲击中国市场,还有利于在发达国家拟退出量化宽松之际抵御国际资金回流,推动人民币国际化;更有利于降低企业成本、提升托宾Q值,理顺托宾Q理论货币政策传导机制,有效激励、引导货币从资本市场转向实体经济投资,促进实体经济又好又快发展。

From the perspective of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy based on Tobin＇s Q theory, this paper analyzes the practical effect of the Fed＇ s Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy, summarizes Chinese enterprises＇ Tobin＇ s Q ratio, monetary policy as well as the economic trends, and explores the implication for China＇s monetary policy after the global financial crisis. Finally, some general conclusions were made from this research： The economic policy environment at home and abroad at present is more suitable for the People＇s Bank of China to carry out appropriate loose monetary policy, so as to perfect China＇s capital market development, promote the market oriented reform of interest rate, reduce the cost of enterprise, encourage and guide new investment, rationalize the transmission mechanism of monetary policy based on the Tobin＇s Q theory, effectively guide the money to be invested from the capital market to the real economy, and promote the development of high-tech technology companies and the real economy.