李嘉图制度还是非李嘉图制度——中国物价水平决定的政策与根源研究

Ricardo System or Non-Ricardo System:A Research on the Policy Origin of the Price Level Decision in China

在物价水平的决定问题上,理论界一直存在所谓货币论与财政论之争。本文首先以政府预算约束等式为基础,区分了李嘉图制度和非李嘉图制度,然后运用相关数据,先后通过盈余—负债两变量VAR模型和周期性盈余—结构性盈余—负债三变量VAR模型实证研究了中国财政政策属性。结果发现,1985-2010年间中国财政政策具有李嘉图制度属性,因此所谓的物价水平决定的财政理论(FTPL)在中国并不适用。这意味着,中国应该加强货币政策的科学运用,以更好地实现物价稳定的宏观经济调控目标。

Regarding the issues related to price level decisions, there have always been contentious discussions between monetary theory and fiscal theory. The article distinguishes between Ricardo system and non-Ricardo system based on the government budget constraint equation firstly, and then uses the relevant data to conduct an authentic research on the characteristics of China＇s fiscal policy with a double-variable VAR model of surplus-liabilities and a three-variable VAR model of periodic surplus-structural surplus-liabilities. It is found that China＇s fiscal policy held the features of Ricardo system during the period of 1985-2010, so FTPL did not apply to China. This means that China should strengthen the scientific use of monetary policy in order to better achieve the maeroeconomic control goal of maintaining price stability.