新疆农业保险行为主体的博弈分析

Game Analysis on Behavior Subjects of Agricultural Insurance in Xinjiang

农业保险具有低保额、低收费、低保障和高风险、高成本、高赔付的特性。本研究首先运用Logistic模型对农户参与农业保险的11个影响因素进行分析,结果表明,各因素对农户实际是否投保影响均不显著,得出新疆农户在是否投保没有话语权的结论;其次应用博弈理论,对保险行为主体政府、保险公司两者进行实证分析,得出结论:政府要从全社会的利益出发,在农户所能承担保费的前提下,给予保险公司保费补贴,两者之和要达到保险公司开办农业保险业务的盈亏临界点,从而支持农业保险的发展。

The agricultural insurance had characteristics of low coverage,low charge,low guarantee,high risk,high cost and high compensate. Firstly,11 factors influencing farmers participating in agricultural insurance were analyzed using Logistic model. The results showed that every factor had no significant effect on farmers＇ actual insuring behavior. Thus,the farmers in Xinjiang had no discourse right in insuring or not.Secondly,the government and insurance company,two behavior subjects of agricultural insurance,were analyzed empirically with game theory. The conclusions were as follows. Considering the benefits of whole society,the government should give premium subsidy to insurance company on the basis that the farmers could afford the premium. The sum of premium and premium subsidy should achieve the breakeven point for engaging agricultural insurance business to support the development of agricultural insurance.