货币国际化影响因素与作用机制的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on Influential Factors and Mechanism of Currency Internationalization

在利用国际货币的三大职能全面衡量货币国际化程度的基础上,采用GMM识别货币国际化的影响因素,进而借助自举法的面板Granger因果检验探究货币国际化与其显著影响因素间的相互作用机制。研究发现,货币国际地位的提升在某个阶段可能以某一职能发挥为主,不同阶段的政策着力点应该不同;货币国际化与其影响因素间存在双向因果关系,主导性国际货币对发行国经济因素的影响更为明显;长期来看,人民币国际化成果可以为我国经济增长和金融发展服务。

Based on an overall measuring the degree of currency internationali- zation in accordance with three functions of international currency, we estimate de- terminants of currency internationalization by adopting GMM method. Then Boot- strap Granger Causality Test is used to explore the mechanisms of interaction be- tween currency internationalization and its determinants. We find that the upgrade of currency internationalization relies heavily on the exertion of a certain function in a specific phase and the policies in each phase should be different. Currency interna- tionalization has great causality relation with its determinants. Domestic economic factors can be more dramatically influenced by leading currencies. In the long term the internationalization of Renminbi will make a significant contribution to domestic financial market and economic growth.