收费公路免费对假日旅游经济的拉动作用研究——以2012年“十一黄金周”为例

On the Pulling Effect of the Toll-Free Policy on the Holiday Tourism Economy——A Case Study of the Golden Week of National Day in 2012

2012年"十一黄金周"结束后,社会各界就收费公路免费政策对假日旅游经济拉动作用展开讨论,众说纷纭.在收集2008-2012年间我国大陆28个省级行政区在"十一黄金周"期间的旅游收入,测算出因"免费政策"引发的2012年"十一黄金周"旅游收入的额外增长比、旅游收入额外增长量对实际旅游收入的贡献率的基础上,定量分析了收费公路免费政策对假日旅游经济的拉动作用.研究结果表明:"免费政策"对全国假日旅游经济具有一定的正向拉动作用,但强度有限;拉动作用在各省区间的差异较大,将近半数省区存在逆向拉动作用,其中,广西的正向拉动作用最大,额外增长比和贡献率分别达到了1.40和22.38%;上海的额外增长比最低(-1.04),导致其旅游收入呈现少量的负增长;甘肃的贡献率最低,为-20.34%.

After the National Day holiday in 2012, a discussion on the pulling effect of the toll-free policy on holiday tourism has been going on among various sectors of the community, and they have divergent views. The authors of this article collect the data about the tourism income of 28 provincial administrative divisions in China （mainland） during the National Day holiday from 2008 to 2012, calculate the extra growth ratio and the contribution rate of the tourism revenue of the 2012 ＂golden week＂ due to the toll-free policy and give a quantitative analysis of the effect of this policy on the tourism economy. The results show the toll-free policy has but a limited positive effect on the holiday economy nationwide. The effect varies in different provinces and it shows a negative effect in nearly half of the provinces. Of the 28 provinces, Guangxi has the most impressive positive pulling effect, the extra growth and the contribution rate being 1.40 and 22.38%, respectively; Shanghai has the lowest extra growth ratio （-1.04） in tourism income, resulting in a slight negative growth; and Gansu has the lowest contribution rate （-20.34%）.