论晚清科举废止过程中相关利益集团的博弈

Game Theory Analysis about Interest Groups during the Abolition of Imperial Examination in Late Qing Dynasty

科举废止是晚清社会的重大变革,在此过程中,相关利益集团的博弈经历了三个阶段。戊戌变法开始后,保守派、维新派、洋务派进行着"枪手博弈"。维新变法失败后,执掌中枢的保守派与民间乡绅维持着"智猪博弈"。晚清新政以后,洋务派重回权力中心,统治集团与八股乡绅进行着"斗鸡博弈"。这一博弈过程反映了晚清科举废止中相关利益集团之间的理性抉择。

The abolition of Imperial Examination is a vital change in the late Qing Dynasty. The gaming among the interest groups during the abolition of Imperial Examination experiences three stages. After the 1898 Reform of China, the Conservative, the Reformists and the Westernization groups had a ＂game of gunner＂. After the failure of the Hundred Days Reform, the Conservative recovered their power, having a ＂game of boxed pigs＂ with the squire class. In the New Deal of Late Qing Dynasty, the Westernization group returned to power. During this period, there was a ＂game of cockfight＂ between the squire class and the government. This process reflects the rational choices of the interest ~rou^s about the abolitinn ~f lrnn^rial l^YAm;n^t;,~,~