论首任奥巴马政府对华政策的限度--基于公众与精英认知鸿沟的分析

On Constraints of the China Policy in Obama's First Term:Based on the Cognitive Gap between the Public and the Elite

作者尝试从美国公众与精英间的认知分歧影响美国政府对华政策的视角来探讨奥巴马政府第一任期对华政策摇摆的动因。作者发现,在奥巴马政府第一任期期间,美国公众与精英在有关对华政策观的政治、经济与安全等诸层面存在认知分歧。价值取向、期待鸿沟与媒体导向的共同作用导致了美国公众与精英间认知分歧的产生。同时,美国自身的国内经济状况已经成为影响美国公众对华政策观的重要因素。这些都在一定程度上限制了奥巴马政府推进其既定中国政策的耐力与空间,也就是在奥巴马政府寻求精英决策与公众诉求间的微妙平衡过程中,其第一任期内的中美关系才呈现出了大致稳定基础上的摇摆性。总体而言,美国公众舆论对未来美国政府对华政策的约束作用主要受到中国崛起进程及美国经济复苏前景这两大因素的影响,这一发现有利于增进我们对美国政府对华政策的认知,对于我们如何更好地经营中美关系也有启示意义。

This paper aims at exploring the cause of the swinging China policy in Obama's first term from a new perspective by analyzing the influence of the cognitive gap between the American public and the elite on its China policy.Value orientation,expectation gap as well as media shaping give rise to the formation of this cognition gap.The research analyzes the hands-bound effect on the Obama administration's China policy by comparing the views of China policy concerning political,economic and security issues in Sino-US relations between the US public and the elite.Also,the research finds that US domestic economy condition has become the direct factor affecting American public views on China as the economic competition from China has been intensifying.Anyway,the factors mentioned above constrained the endurance and space to reach the initial goals of the Obama administration's China policy.Hence,with Obama administration trying to pursue a delicate balance between elite consensus and public demands,the Sino-US relation appeared mainly stable as well as somewhat concussive.Generally speaking,constraints from US public opinions of future China Policy will be mainly determined by the process of China rise as well as the prospect of US economy recovery.Perhaps,this discovery may contribute to our further understanding of US policy toward China,and it also provides significant enlightenment for us on how to better manage Sino-US relations.