扩大内需、工资上涨与对外出口——来自中国228个城市的面板数据

EXPANDING DOMESTIC DEMAND,RISING WAGES AND EXPORT——Based on 228 Cities Panel Data Analysis

本文利用2000—2011年我国228个城市的面板数据,考察扩大内需、工资上涨对我国出口贸易产生的影响。研究表明:内需的提高和工资的上涨不仅不会抑制出口,还能促进出口贸易的扩张,数据显示:内需提高1%会促进出口量扩张约0.263%,这意味着在目前阶段,我国对外贸易中国内消费需求因素发挥了核心作用;同时工资上涨1%,促进出口增加0.174%,这说明工资上涨有助于提高劳动生产率,进而促进出口贸易。在分区域的研究中发现,扩大内需以及工资上涨对东、中、西部地区的出口贸易均能产生正向的促进作用,但是这一作用存在明显的地区差异性,对中部地区的作用最强。同时吸收外商直接投资以及减少政府干预对出口有正向激励作用。

This paper explored an empirical study of the effect on export trade by implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and rising wages with the 228 cities panel data ranging from 2000 to 2011. The empirical results showed the increase of the domestic demand and rising wages would not on- ly restrain exports, but also could promote the expansion of export trade. This paper showed that the do- mestic demand increased by 1% would boost exports expanded by about 0. 263%, which meant that China＇s foreign trade within China consumer demand factors played a central role. Meanwhile the wage in- creased by 1% to boost exports expanded by about 0. 174%, which meant the rising wages would improve labor productivity, thus boosting exports. This paper found that the expanding domestic demand strategy of eastern, central and western regions would produce positive promoting effect of export trade with obvi- ous regional differences. At the same time, the foreign direct investment and the reduce of government in- tervention had a positive incentive effect on exports.