摘要
本文描述了我国劳动力供给的总体数量以及变化趋势,并从劳动参与率、城乡结构、人力资本三方面进行考察,探讨人口老龄化对于劳动力供给的影响。我国劳动参与率还存在较大增长空间,将会是未来劳动力供给的重要增长点;农村剩余劳动力存量仍看似充足,但其老龄化情况较严重,难以维持当前农民工向城市转移的速度;另外我国年轻劳动力的教育程度和人力资本已有显著提升。因此虽然人口老龄化已经对我国劳动力供给产生了一定负面影响,但由于人口和劳动力的变化是一个长期过程,并不会给经济发展带来突发的、灾难性的冲击。
In order to shed lights on the impact of an aging population on the labor market in China, this paper examines labor participation rates, rural-urban migration and human resources. It is found that, labor participation rates of certain age groups are relatively low. The labor supply in the agriculture sector seems to be abundant; however, population in rural areas, which is particularly aging, cannot sustain a large flow of city-ward migration. Given the educational development in China, youngsters＇ educational level and human capital have significantly improved. Consequently, population aging will negatively affect the supply of labor in the future; nonetheless, it will not bring sudden and catastrophic shocks in a short period.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第11期49-58,共10页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71273272)
国家自然科学基金项目(41201146)
北京市社科联青年社科人才资助项目(35313004)
