1991-2011年山东省工业经济增长的大气污染效应及其时空格局——以SO_2和粉尘为例

Effect of industrial growth on atmospheric pollution and its spatio-temporal pattern in Shandong Province during 1991-2011:Taking SO_2 and dust emissions as example

环境污染是影响区域可持续发展的重要因素,经济增长与大气环境污染的关系及其时空演变格局是地理学等相关学科的研究热点。本文以山东省为例,选取SO2、粉尘两项指标反映大气污染状况,采取LMDI分解模型、脱钩模型以及地理空间分析等研究方法,探讨山东省工业经济增长的大气环境污染效应及其时空格局,得出以下结论:①SO2排放总量呈现上升—下降—回升—下降的趋势,拐点分别在1997、2002和2005年;粉尘总体呈现先上升后下降的趋势,拐点在1997年;大气污染与工业经济基本实现了从相对脱钩向绝对脱钩的转变,总体趋势有所改善。②从污染物排放总量以及分年度数据来看,规模总量效应是造成SO2、粉尘等大气污染物排放量增加的主要原因;技术效率效应是造成污染物排放总量减少的主要原因;结构减排效应对于污染物减排起到一定作用,但效果并不明显。③就空间格局来说,淄博、莱芜、枣庄等地区地均SO2排放量较高,菏泽、临沂等鲁西、鲁南地区相对较低;济南、淄博、莱芜、烟台和枣庄等鲁中、鲁东以及鲁南地区地均粉尘排放量较大。针对上述研究结果,提出制定差别化区域政策、优化工业布局、创新环境管理措施、实施大气环境信息公开等相关对策。

Economic growth is considered to be leading causes of ecological crisis. With rapid industrialization and urbanization, environmental problems inevitably have become the important factors that affect regional sus- tainable development. Recently, the spatio-temporal pattern of environmental pollution caused by industrial de- velopment and economic growth became a hot topic in geography. In this paper, we took Shandong Province as an example, selected SO2 and dust as two indicators of atmospheric pollution, and used LMDI model, decompo- sition model and geographic （spatial） analysis to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern of industrial growth and atmospheric pollution in Shandong Province from 1991 to 2011, and drew conclusions as follows. （1） SO2 emis- sion showed a trend of a downward-upward cycle, followed by a second downward-upward cycle, with the in- flection points in 1997, 2002, and 2005, respectively, and, generally speaking, the dust increased first and then decreased, with the inflection point in 1997. The two atmospheric pollutants basically changed from relatively decoupled to absolutely decoupled, indicating an overall improvement of the atmospheric environment. （2） The results of the overall total amount and annual amounts of pollutants indicate that the overall scale of industrial and economic activities is the main cause of atmospheric pollution with SO2 and dust, the effect of technical effi- ciency is the main reason for the reduction of total pollutants, and the structure effect played certain, but limited, roles in the reduction of pollutants. So adjustment of industrial structures, especially reducing the pollution-in- tensive industries, is the main approach to pollution control. （3） Overall pattern of SO2 and dust pollution sug- gested that the situation of pollution control was getting better. SO2 emissions per unit area are high mainly in Laiwu, Zibo, Zaozhuang and other areas, and relatively low in Heze, Linyi and other western and southern ar- eas. Dust emissions per unit area are mainly high in Ji＇nan, Zibo, Laiwu, Yantai and Zaozhuang of the middle, southern, and westem areas. Based on the above research results, we propose that different regional policies need to be implemented, industrial layout optimized, environmental management measures innovated, environ- mental information disclosure, in addition to other relevant countermeasures. In order to solve the current atmo- spheric／environmental problems, this research is of practical significance for the establishment of atmospheric environmental governance and the mechanism of sustainable regional development in Shandong Province, and promotion of the coordination between regional economic growth and environmental protection.