开放条件下中国通货膨胀的影响因素——来自省际面板数据的证据

On the Determinants of China's Inflation in Case of Openness:Evidences from Provincial Panel Data

在开放条件下,一国的通货膨胀水平受到国内和国外两个层面因素的影响。实证分析的结果表明,进入21世纪之后,在影响我国通货膨胀的因素中,通货膨胀预期以及地区内部和外部供需条件的变动是影响我国地区物价水平的重要因素。相对于沿海地区而言,内陆地区对外部市场供需状况的变动更为敏感。在这样的背景下,应对通货膨胀的政策选择应是在积极稳定居民通货膨胀预期的同时,在内部和外部两个层面同时有所兼顾。

Under the background of opening-up, both global and domestic factors are crucial determi- nants of domestic inflation. This paper attempts to investigate the determinants of China＇s inflation from the perspective of opening up. By applying the empirical analysis, we argue that inflation expecta- tion and global and domestic demand-supply conditions play a remarkable role in affecting China＇s infla- tion. Furthermore, the inland regions in China are more sensitive to the changes of demand-supply conditions of external markets. Correspondingly, policy option to fight inflation should be stabilizing inflation expectation while taking both global and domestic aspects into account.