“新四化”的互动机理及其发展水平测度

Interactive mechanism and development level measurement of “four new modernizations”

党的十八大报告中首次提出要促进工业化、信息化、城镇化与农业现代化的同步发展。"新四化"是我国现代化的基本内容,四者相互影响、相互配合、相互促进,共同推动社会和经济的发展。通过对工业化、信息化、城镇化和农业现代化两两之间相互作用机理的分析,总结提炼出了"新四化"互动关系理论模型,并运用熵值法和格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验法对我国"新四化"的互动关系进行了测度和评价。评价结果表明,我国工业化和信息化、工业化和城镇化、城镇化和信息化、城镇化和农业现代化在发展过程中实现了良好的互动,能互相影响,但工业化和农业现代化、信息化和农业现代化未能实现良性互动。

The report on the 18th session of the Nation- al People＇ s Congress firstly proposes that we should promote the simultaneous development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. ＂Four new modern- izations＂ are the basic contents of China＇ s modernization. They influence each other, cooperate with each other, accelerate with each other and jointly promote social and economic develop- ment. This essay summarizes an interaction model based on the analysis of interactive mechanism among industrialization, infor- matization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. Mean- while, it measures and evaluates their interactive relation by u- sing Entropy Method and Granger Causality Test Method. Re- suits show that there exists positive interaction between China＇ s industrialization and informatization, industrialization and urban- ization, urbanization and informatization, urbanization and agri- cultural modernization, each couple can influence each other while the industrialization and agriculture modernization, informatization and agricultural modernization has failed to achieve the mutual interaction.