环洞庭湖区生态经济系统的耦合特征研究

The Coupling Characteristics of Eco-economic System in Dongting Lake Area

以环洞庭湖区生态经济系统为研究对象，通过构建评价指标体系，基于耦合度、协调度模型，运用神经网络模型，分析系统达到最佳耦合协调状态的因子贡献度，探讨系统因子对于社会经济与生态环境协调的调控适应机制。研究表明：①从耦合程度的时序看，10a间耦合度变动趋势较平稳，2003-2011年社会经济与生态环境的发展关系基本为拈抗状态，2012年正在向磨合时期过渡。对于序参量年度变化率比较，年度变化都比较平稳，序参量之间协同作用的强弱程度体现系统由无序走向有序的趋势，但社会经济发展与生态环境交互耦合作用并不十分理想。②2003-2012年环洞庭湖区社会经济与生态环境建设的协调程度基本还处于中低水平。2003～2011年社会经济与生态环境发展关系处于低度协调，2012年开始转入中度协调，洞庭湖经济发展与生态环境的协调程度还有待进一步提高。③2003～2005年耦合度处于较高状态，但协调度却不处于高位。2006-2012年系统耦合度与协调度基本上具有相同的变化趋势。④生态经济系统评价因子的贡献度，是系统耦合协调达到理想等级的评价因子重要性，反映某项评价指标对耦合或协调最佳状态的贡献程度。生态环境子系统的评价因子贡献度大下社会经济子系统，说明了对于系统理想状态的调控，生态环境子系统各项指标具有主导作用。⑤在系统调控中，囚子贡献度与系统目标调控程度呈正相关。因子贡献度越大，对系统耦合或协调目标调控力度越大。

The mechanism of coordination and adjustment of eco-ecological system are explored by using cou- pling degree model and coordination degree model and the neural network model as theoretical basis and fac- tor contribution degree of eco-ecological system in Dongting Lake Area as guidance. The outcomes indicated that： l） The variation trend of the coupling degree was smooth during 2003-2012, their coupling degrees was basically at resisting stage from 2003 to 2011, and coupling degrees during 2012 were becoming gearing stage. The annual variations order parameter were stable, and trend of development was a dynamic process from dis- ordering to ordering but the result was clearly not ideal, 2） The coordination degrees of economy and ecologi- cal environment are lower from 2003 to 2012 in Dongting Lake Area, and transformed into moderate coordina- tion in 2013. The coordination degree of economy and ecological environment in Dongting lake area remains to be further improved. 3） The coupling degree and coordination degrees inconsistent from 2003 to 2005. The variation trend of coupling degrees and coordination degrees are similar from 2006 to 2012.4） The contri- bution degree of the evaluation factor of the ecological economic system was put further, which is reflected the impact effects of evaluation of a coupling or coordinate degree. The contribution degree of evaluation factor of ecological system was greater than economic system, which showed ecological system has a more important role than ecological system. 5） There was a positive correlation between the contribution degree and regulation degree. There was greater driving force of the coupling or coordinate when the factor contribution rate was greater.