复杂系统的Bayes可靠性评估

Bayesian Reliability Assessment for Complex Systems

讨论了复杂系统的Bayes可靠性评估。首先 ,对各种不同分布类型的单元进行Bayes可靠性分析 ;其次利用最大熵方法把单元可靠性信息进行综合 ,得到系统可靠性的验前分布 ;最后根据Bayes定理 ,利用系统可靠性试验信息来更新系统可靠性的验前分布得到系统可靠性的验后分布 ,依据此验后分布对系统可靠性进行评估。

Bayesian Reliability assessment for complex systems is discussed in this paper. First, Bayesian reliability analysis for components with various distribution types is studied. Then information of components is integrated using maximum entropy principle, and prior distribution of system reliability is obtained. Finally, prior distribution of system reliability is updated with system reliability information according to Bayes theorem to obtain posterior distribution of system distribution on which is based to evaluate system reliability. The results from simulation show the proposed method reasonable.