古树风险评估与风险管理方法研究

Method of risk assessment and management for ancient trees

古树风险是指伴随古树自身衰老或其他生物特征的影响以及管理方面存在的漏洞,导致了古树周边的人、建筑和其他公共财产可能存在着一定的威胁,造成这种威胁的可能性称之为古树风险。本文基于生态风险定义给出了古树风险定义,通过分析古树风险评估与风险管理的关系,建立古树风险评估--管理体系;根据古树风险成因分析,从古树自身健康和古树管理情况两个方面入手,确立了古树风险评估的4个原则——非绝对性原则、持续性原则、动态性原则和循环性原则;将古树风险评估划分为风险识别--定量分析--矩阵判别3个阶段,最终从风险管理角度为古树的保护与管理提供了方法与对策。

The ancient trees can easily hurt people and buildings around because of its aging or other biological characteristics and negligence in management. This thesis defined the ancient tree＇ s risk based on the definition of ecology risk. By analyzing the relationship between risk assessment and management for ancient trees, we built the risk assessment-management system for ancient trees. This thesis also analyzes the ancient tree＇ s risk reason and the risk suffered by things around from aspects of health and management for ancient trees, which helps ensuring the principle of ancient tree＇ s risk assessment, that is the principle of non-absolute, persistent, dynamic and cycle. By dividing the ancient tree＇ s risk assessment into three steps, i.e. the risk identification-quantitative analysis-matrix discriminance, we finally provide the methods to protect and manage the ancient trees.