Fiscal Policy and Urban and Rural Residents' Marginal Propensity to Consume

Based on the optimal consumption decisions of representative households and the relationship between their decisions and fiscal policy, we evaluate the impact of China＇s fiscal policy on urban and rural residents＇ marginal propensity to consume. The result shows that since 1998 marginal propensity to consume has decreased by more than 20 percent, ＇and the decrease is not only due to income distribution, economic development level, expectations, consumption structure and other factors, but also closely related to the application of fiscal policy. Among these factors, the overall impact of unanticipated fiscal policy shocks is significant and negative. The policy option of using unforeseen increases in tax revenue as a financing instrument greatly diminishes the positive effects of structural adjustment. Therefore, to increase household consumption, it is necessary not only to raise residents＇ capacity for consumption by increasing fiscal revenue but also to stabilize consumer expectations and promote the marginal propensity to consume through adjusting fiscal revenue and expenditure policies.

基于代表性家庭最优消费决策及其与财政政策的关系,估计中国财政政策对城乡居民边际消费倾向的影响,结果表明,自1998年至今,城乡居民边际消费倾向的下降幅度超过20%。城乡居民边际消费倾向下降,除源于收入分配、经济发展程度、预期、消费结构等因素的影响外,与财政政策运用也有很大关系。其中,未预期到的财政政策冲击对居民边际消费倾向产生的综合效应显著为负。以未预期到的税收增加为融资工具的策略选择,大大抑制了结构调整的正面效应。因此,扩大居民消费,不仅要通过财政增收,提高居民消费能力,而且要通过调整财政收支策略,稳定居民消费预期,提升居民边际消费倾向。