东南亚八国天然气市场供需与管制现状

Natural Gas Supply,Demand and Market Regulation Today in Eight Natural Gas Producing Southeast Asian Countries

八个东南亚天然气资源国按照储量差异可分为三类，第一类是储量相对丰富的国家，包括印尼、马来西ⅢE和东帝汶，2012年底印尼和马来西亚的天然气剩余可采储量分别为2．93×10^12m3和1．32×10^12m3。2012年印尼天然气产量为7lO．7×10。In’，国内消费量358．1×10^8m3；同年马来西亚生产天然气652．4×10^8m3，国内消费量333．3×10^8m3。第二类是天然气储量处于中等水平的泰国、越南、文莱和缅甸，截至2012年底，四国天然气剩余可采储量分别为0．28×10^12m3、0．62×10^12m3、0．29×10^12m3和0．22×10^12m3：2012年四国天然气产量分别为413．9×10^8m3、94．0×10^8m3、125．7×10^8m3和127．3×10^m3。第三类是储量相对较小的菲律宾，2007～2011年其天然气产量与消费量始终维持在1000×10^8ft3上下。文莱、缅甸、东帝汶的天然气主要用于出口，越南、泰国、菲律宾以供应本国市场为主，马来西亚、印尼内需与外需能基本兼顾。缅甸和东帝汶的出口量将随着新项目的落实逐渐扩大：文莱和印尼的出口量将围绕某一水平波动：马来西亚价格管制政策的调整，将决定其出口量的变化以及能否逐步减少天然气的进口量；越南在LNG供应链建设完成后进口量将出现较快增长；菲律宾如果不改革管制政策，天然气的消费增长将停滞。

The the size of reserv eight natural gas producing Southeast Asian countries can be divided into three groups by es.In the first group are reserve-rich countries,including Indonesia,Malaysia and East Timor. At the end of 2012,Indonesia and Malaysia respectively had 2.93×10^12m3 and 1.32×10^12m3 of remaining re- coverable gas reserves.In 2012,Indonesia produced 710.7×10^8m3 of natural gas and consumed 358.1x108m3 domestically.Malaysia produced 652.4×10^8m3 of natural gas last year and consumed 333.3×10^8m3.In the second group are countries with moderate sizes of gas reserves,including Thailand,Vietnam,Brunei and Myanmar.At the end of 2012,the four countries respectively had 0.28×10^12m3,0.62×10^12m3,0.29×10^8m3 and 0.22×10^12m3 of remaining recoverable gas reserves.Last year,the four countries respectively produced 413.9×10^8m3,94.0×10^8m3, 125.7x10Sm3 and 127.3×10^8m3 of natural gas.The Philippines is in the third group.From 2007 to 2011 ,the country＇s natural gas production and consumption hovered around 1000×10^8ft3.Most of natural gas output in Brunei ,Myanmar and East Timor is for export and that in Vietnam ,Thailand and the Philippines is for do- mestic use.Malaysia and Indonesia can basically meet both domestic and overseas demand.Gas exports of Myanmar and East Timor will increase gradually along with the start of operation of new projects and those of Brunei and Indonesia will fluctuate around certain levels.Malaysia＇s adjustment to its regulated pricing policy will dictate the changes in the volume of its gas exports as well as whether or not the country would be able to gradually reduce its gas imports.Vietnam＇s gas imports will grow rapidly after completion of its LNG supply chain.The Philippines＇ gas consumption will stop growing if the country does not reform its reg- ulated pricing policy.