2013年呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎发病现状与趋势预测

Epidemic Status and Trend Forecast of Mumps in Huhhot city in 2013

目的掌握呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎发病现状,初步预测2013年下半年呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎的发病情况,为制定有效的防控措施提供数据支持。方法采用描述流行病学方法对呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎发病情况进行分析,运用ARlMA数学模型对呼和浩特市2013年下半年流行性腮腺炎发病数进行预测。结果 2013年上半年呼和浩特市发病率为21.41/10万,与去年同期相比上升33.62%,处于近年发病最高水平;地区分布以赛罕区和玉泉区居多,病例以学生为主,发病年龄集中在2~15岁年龄段;2013年下半年呼和浩特市流行性腮腺炎预测发病数为992例,较2012年下半年（695例）上升了42.73%。结论 2013年报告发病数与预测发病数均比较高,形势较为严峻,建议在我市针对重点人群尽快开展流行性腮腺炎疫苗的接种工作,形成免疫屏障,保障人民群众生命健康。

Objective To undersland the mumps epidemic status and epidemiological characteristics in Huhhot City, and analyze the epidemiological factors, which will provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control of epidemic parotid gland in future. Methods The incidence of mumps were used to analyze by descriptive epidemiological methods in Hohhot City, the incidence of mumps numbers about the second half of 2013 were predicted by the ARIMA mathematical model. Results The incidence rate was 21.41/100 000 in the first half of 2013 in Hohhot City, which increased by 33.62% compared with the same period last year; cases distribution was mostly in Saihan and Yuquan district, were mainly students, age mainly in 2-15 years of age; the number of mumps was 992 by predict in the second half of 2013 years of Hohhot City, which increased by 42.73% （695 Cases） compared with the same period last year. Conclusion The incidence rate from data base and prediction in 2013 was high, the situation is more severe, suggestion was offerd about preventive vaccination in focus groups as soon as possible to form immune barrier and protect people＇s lives and health.