上海市碳排放影响因素的灰色关联分析与预测

Grey Correlation Analysis and Forecast of Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Shanghai

为给上海市降低碳排放量提供有益参考,同时给中国城市低碳发展作示范,通过灰色关联分析法研究了上海市2000—2011年碳排放量与经济增长水平、人口规模、产业结构、能源结构、能源强度的关联度,并详细分析了各影响因素对上海市碳排放量的影响.同时运用基于正弦函数变换的GM(1,1)模型对上海市碳排放量进行了预测,预测结果表明了上海市加大节能减排力度的紧迫性.最后,针对研究结果,结合上海市实际情况,给出了降低上海市碳排放量的具体对策和路径.

The purpose of the analysis is to provide a useful reference for reducing carbon emissions in Shanghai and make a model for the low-carbon development in Chinese cities.The correlation between the carbon emission in Shanghai 2000—2011 and the level of economic development,population size,industrial structure,energy structure and energy intensity was analyzed by using the method of Grey correlation.An exhaustive analysis of the impact of factors was also given.By using the GM（1,1）forecasting model based on sine function to predict carbon emissions,it concludes that it is necessary for Shanghai to strengthen the efforts of energy conservation and emission reduction.By the result,according to the situation of Shanghai,specific countermeasures and corresponding pathes were proposed in order to reduce the carbon emissions in Shanghai.