组合预测在安徽省能源消费中的应用

Application of Combination Forecast to Energy Consumption in Anhui Province

鉴于能源消费系统的复杂性和非线性特征,首先利用安徽省1994-2011年的能源消费数据,分别建立二次多项式模型、灰色预测模型和时间序列模型,并对其结果进行统计检验和比较分析;其次在使误差平方和达到最小的条件下进行权重分配,建立组合预测模型,结果表明该模型的精度高于各单项预测模型,可以用来预测安徽省未来的能源消费量;最后应用组合预测模型预测出安徽省未来4年的能源消费量。

In view of the complexity and nonllnearlty oI energy the data of energy consumption from 1994 to 2011 in Anhui province, this paper established quadratic poly nomial model, gray forecast model and time series model respectively, and made a statistical test and com parative analysis for each model Secondly, under the criteria.of the minimum square error, distributing the weights to establish the combination forecast model, the results showed that the accuracy of combina tion orecast model was better than the individual prediction model, so this model could be used to forecast future energy consumption in Anhui province. Finally, the model was used to forecast Anhui energy con sumption in the next four years.