后现代农业视角下的中国农业现代化效益水平测评

The Analysis of the Level of Chinese Agricultural Modernization Efficiency Based on the Post-modern Agriculture

后现代农业在世界范围内的兴起与发展为中国农业发展方式转型打开了新的思维空间。本文从收益—成本维度构建农业现代化效益水平评价指标体系,试图更加全面准确地分析农业现代化成就与代价的对比情况。灰色优势分析在基本排除主观因素干扰的情况下对各评价指标进行赋权,提升了评价体系的可信度。1981—2011年中国农业现代化效益指数的测度结果表明,虽然近30年中国农业现代化的效益水平总体为负,但在2002年以后其波动趋势发生了根本性变化,即由加速下滑变为加速上升,中国农业发展方式转型由此呈现出较为积极的态势。考虑到成本类因素对农业发展的约束日渐趋紧,未来中国农业发展向后现代转向已成必然趋势。

Post-modern agriculture in the worldwide rise and development,contributes to Chinese agricultural development mode transformation open a new space of thinking. The evaluation index system of the level of Chinese agricultural modernization efficiency building from the'revenue-cost'dimension is more fully and accurately measure of the agricultural modernization achievements and cost comparison. Grey Supe-rior Analysis excluding subjective factors in the case of the evaluation indicators of empowerment,this method can enhance the credibility of the evaluation system. The correlation order of income indicators and cost indicators of agriculture modernization reflects the strength of the representation of measuring the level of agricultural modernization efficiency. The experimental result of Chinese agricultural mod-ernization efficiency index in the years 1981—2011 shows that: although nearly 30 years the level of Chinese agricultural modernization efficiency in general is negative,after 2002,its fluctuation trend has undergone a fundamental change,it consists of accelerating decline into accelerated. Changes in Chinese agricultural development show a more positive trend. Taking into account cost factors on the increasingly tight constraints of agricultural development,the future development of Chinese agriculture has become an inevitable trend in the postmodern.