基于出行目的的铁路旅客时间价值研究

Time Value of Railway Passengers Based on Travel Purpose

在铁路旅客出行时间价值预测问题的研究中,对在出行目的、旅客收入等多因素影响下的铁路旅客出行时间价值的确定方法进行了研究。首先分析了铁路旅客出行时间价值的影响因素,将其归结为经济因素、时间因素、身份特征和出行目的。然后针对商务出行和非商务出行两种出行目的,仿真了不同出行目的条件下出行者出行效用和旅客收入之间的函数关系,从而得到新的出行效用函数和时间价值模型,最后应用极大似然估计对模型参数进行了分析和标定,设计了求解算法。以武广铁路为例进行了实证分析,通过新提出的模型与传统模型进行比较发现:计算结果均以高速铁路出行方式的时间价值为高,但新提出的模型细分了旅客特征和出行目的,对旅客出行行为的研究更加具体,计算结果更加完善和具有针对性。

To improve railway passengers travel utility, the defining method of the value of time of travel behavior was studied under the influence of multiple factors about travel purpose and traveler income. Firstly, the paper analyzed affecting factors about choice behavior of railway passengers, and attributed the factors which effected on time value of railway passengers to four aspects ： economic factor, time factor, identity characteristic and trip purpose. The thesis mainly simulated the function between the travel utility and traveler income on different travel purpose, so as to get the new travel utility function and the time value model. Then the model parameters were discussed and estimated by means of maximum likelihood estimation （ MLE）, and at last, the algorithm was designed. Finally, the paper gave an illustration to show the application about Wuhan - Guangzhou railway data, and obtained the results by combining with the traditional model that the time value of the speed - railway travel mode was higher at both calculations. This model subdivides the traveler characteristic and travel purpose, meanwhile takes more concrete research on traveler behavior, and the calculation is more perfect and more pertinent.