粮食主产区农资价格与农民增收相互关系的实证研究

Empirical Studies on the Interrelation between Prices of Agricultural Means of Production and Farmers' Income Increase in Major Grain Producing Areas

运用格兰杰因果关系检验、向量自回归模型、Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应函数分析等方法对粮食主产区农资价格与农民收入的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,粮食主产区农资价格与农民收入之间没有长期稳定的均衡关系,且从长远来看,农资价格上涨的幅度要大于农民收入的增幅,将会显著挤压农民增收的空间。为保持农资价格合理上涨的同时,保证农民持续增收,提出了积极发展现代农业,有效分割农资需求,着力构建农业生产资料价格预警机制,进一步加大强农惠农力度的对策建议。

Empirically analyses on the relationship between the price of agricultural means of production and farmers＇ income in major grain producing areas was conducted with Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, Johansen cointegration test and impulse response function analysis. The results showed that there was no long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the price of agricultural means of production and farmers＇ income. In the long term, the increasing extent of the price of agricultural means of production was higher than that of farmers＇ income, which would significantly squeeze the space for the increase of farmers＇ income. In order to ensure increase of farmers＇ income persistently while maintain the increase of prices of agricultural means, it was proposed that developing modern agriculture vigorously and splitting the demand of agricultural means of production. The warning mechanism of the price of agricultural means of production should be established.Efforts for strengthening agriculture and benefitting farmers should be intensified.