过程装置事故概率的模糊保护层分析模型研究

Fuzzy Layer of Protection Analysis for Failure Probability of Process System

为计算过程装置失效概率(PFD),提高事故后果评估的量化水平,对过程装置反应失控后果进行研究。基于传统的保护层分析(LOPA)模型,结合模糊集合理论,构建模糊保护层分析(FLOPA)模型。以氯乙烯单体(VCM)生产聚氯乙烯(PVC)的间歇聚合反应装置反应失控为初始事件,分析失效后果并计算事故后果概率。最后,对比分析2种模型的计算结果。结果表明,FLOPA模型计算结果更精确,与传统LOPA法结果相比,误差高达81.41%,所得失效后果概率数量级的不同会导致风险评价的结果不同,从而影响将采取的风险缓解措施。

In order to calculate PFD of process system and improve the quantification level of conse- quence assessment, the consequence of process system reactor runaway was studied. A FLOPA model was built based on model of LOPA and fuzzy sets theory. The failure consequences of a batch polymerization reactor system for producing polyvinyl chloride （PVC）, via vinyl chloride monomer （VCM） are analyzed and probability was calculated by regarding the reactor runaway as the initial event. Based on these results, a comparative analysis was made on results obtained by two models. The study shows that results obtained by FLOPA model are much more accurate, the error between results from LOPA and FLOPA is as high as 81.41%. The difference of order of magnitude can result in different result of risk assessment, thus affect the risk mitigation measures.