信贷扩张与资产价格泡沫:案例、机制与启示

Credit Expansion and Asset Price Bubbles: A Study Based on the Three Bubble Events in America and Japan

回顾分析1929年大崩溃、1980年代末日本的资产价格泡沫以及2008年美国次贷危机,发现每次资产价格泡沫的过度膨胀都伴随着大规模的信贷扩张;而信贷急速扩张的背后,则是长期繁荣所形成的大众乐观以至疯狂情绪。这意味着,应该从更长远的政策视野推进宏观金融调控体系改革,构建金融和实体经济双稳定框架,以降低实体经济、信贷扩张与资产价格波动的同周期性所引发的泡沫风险。

Reviewing the big crash in 1929, the Japanese asset price bubble in 1980＇s, and the U. S. subprime crisis in 2008, we find that credit expansion resulted in asset price boom, and the Optimistic expectations based on the long - term prosperity are the main reason of credit expansion. In order to reduce the risk of bubble caused by the procycle among real economy, credit supply and asset price fluctuation, we should operate macro financial regulation counter - cyclically.