不确定性条件下建设工程设计进度优化研究

Research on the Design Scheduling Optimization of the Construction Project under Uncertainty

随着建设工程项目的大型化、复杂化,其设计中的迭代问题也呈多发趋势。但相应技术或方法的缺乏,使得管理者在面对此类问题时常显得束手无策。因此,本文尝试将DSM理论引入到复杂建设工程设计进度管理领域,针对传统进度管理方法的缺陷及现有复杂建设工程设计过程中易发的迭代问题,构建一种以DSM理论为基础的进度优化体系,同时用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对设计进度的不确定性进行研究,最终将其运用于某大飞机配套工程设计进度优化中。结果显示,该模型在迭代活动识别、活动排序优化及工期分布预测计算方面均具有一定的优势,并可以通过解耦操作实现进度的优化,通过仿真模拟预判关键活动,为复杂建设工程设计进度的优化提供了新的思路。

With the uTPizing and increasing complication of the construction project,the design iteration of it is in a upward trend. However,because of the lack of corresponding techniques or methods, managers who facing such a problem are always at a loss what to do. Therefore,this paper attempts to apply the DSM theory to the design process of the complex construction project. Focusing on the defect of the traditional design schedule management methods and the existing iterative problem in the design process,the author builds a scheduling optimization model based on the DSM theory,and further studies on the uncertainty of the design scheduling using Monte Carlo Simulation. At last,the model is successfully applied to optimize the design schedule of the supporting projects of an Airport. Research shows that,the model has the advantage in terms of iteration activities identifying,activity sequencing and duration forecasting,and it can also achieve schedule optimization by tearing and forecast critical activities by simulation,which presenting some new opinions for the optimization of the design scheduling of the complex construction project.