基于多层次灰色方法的旅游地产项目开发风险评价模型及实证研究

Research on Evaluation Model of Tourism Real Estate Projects Development Risks and Its Empirical Analysis:Based on the Multi-level Grey Evaluation Method

旅游地产是将旅游业和房地产两大产业融合而衍生出的一种新型地产开发模式,目前已经引起各地政府的高度重视,但在实际的开发与运行中存在着很大的风险性。因此本文对于旅游地产项目的开发风险从量化的角度进行分析评价,通过构建旅游地产项目开发风险的评价指标体系,以及采用主观的层次分析法与客观的变异系数法相结合的方法确定综合权重,以此建立起基于多层次灰色模型的旅游地产项目开发风险评价模型。并以A企业为例进行了实证研究,结果显示A企业的旅游地产项目开发风险处于一般风险与较低风险之间,适合进行项目的开发与投资。

As a new type of real estate development model, tourism real estate, the integration oi the two major industries of tourism and real estate, has caused great concern of local governments; however, significant risks are seen in its actual development and operation. This paper analyzed and evaluated tourism real estate development risks from quantitative viewpoint through establishing an evaluation model based on the grey the multi-level model. The authors built a tourism real estate development risk evaluation index system, as well as AHP combining the coefficient of variation method, to determine weights, and took an example of Enterprise A for empirical research. The results show that Enterprise A＇ s tourism real estate development risks are in the general range associated with lower risks, hence, suitable for project development and investment.