混凝土坝渗流性态综合评价与趋势预估模型研究

Comprehensive evaluation and tendency prediction model for concrete dam seepage behavior

大坝渗流性态评价是一个多层次多指标相融合的系统分析问题。充分利用大坝渗流实测资料,构建人为参与少、可操作性强的大坝渗流性态评价方法,给出定性与定量相结合的评价和预估结果,一直以来是坝工领域关注的重要研究方向。借助集对分析方法和熵值理论,在对混凝土坝实测渗流性态综合评价指标体系和指标度量方法进行论述的基础上,构建了混凝土坝渗流性态的集对分析模型;研究了渗流评价指标的熵权赋值方法;通过同、异、反三方面的综合分析,实现了混凝土坝渗流性态的现状评价和发展趋势预测。对某混凝土重力坝渗流性态的分析表明,该方法可依据混凝土坝渗流性态的实测资料,将确定性和不确定性进行集成考量,能较客观地对混凝土坝渗流性态作出评价和预估。

Evaluation of dam seepage behavior is an important research direction in the dam engineering that taking full use of dam seepage data to establish an evaluation model that can give the evaluation and prediction results qualitatively and quantitatively with advantages of little human participation and good operability. With the help of set pair analysis method and entropy theory, the set pair analysis model of concrete dam seepage behavior is constructed on the basis of discussion on comprehensive evaluation index system and index measurement methodology. Based on entropy weight, the assignment for evaluation indexes is studied. The status evaluation and development tendency prediction of concrete dam seepage behavior is realized through comprehensive analysis on identity, difference and antagonism. Analysis on seepage behavior of a concrete gravity dam shows that the method that takes full use of observed data and gives an integrated consideration to certainty and uncertainty, is a more objective method in evaluation and prediction of dam seepage behavior.