中国高等教育规模扩张机制分析:一个制度学的解释

Dynamics of Higher Education Enrollment Expansion in China:An Institutional Interpretation

从经济欠发达地区以超出自身财政能力快速扩张高等教育规模、中央制定的高等教育大众化目标提前8年实现的现象出发,依循制度学的分析思路,对31个省(市)1998-2010年高校招生规模及其影响因素关系的统计分析发现,各省(市)高等教育规模扩张没有受地方经济发展水平(人均GDP、第三产业就业人数)的显著影响,而受到高中教育规模(高中毕业生数)和高校专任教师数的显著正向影响,受到高等教育财政投入力度(生均预算内教育事业经费)的显著负向影响。数据分析表明,在以地方院校为办学主体的分权格局下,中国高等教育发展相对独立于经济发展的影响,形成了这个时期各省(市)以提高毛入学率为驱动的动力机制。

Based on the phenomena of rapid expansion of college enrollment in both developed and under-developed regions, and massification achieved eight years earlier than the national schedule, this paper, following institutional logic, has analyzed data of 31 provinces between 1998 and 2010. It was found that provincial higher education admission is not significantly affected by such economic indicators, but is significantly and positively affected by graduates of high schools and number of college faculty, and is significantly and negatively affected by public finance per student. It is implied that higher education expansion is independent from economic growth, and higher education grass enrollment ratio has become a criteria for which provincial governments compete.