基于GM(1,1)模型的矿业安全生产事故预测分析

Prediction and analysis of safety production accident in mining industry based on GM( 1,1)

为了有效地进行事故预测和预防,根据灰色理论以信息部分清楚、部分不清楚并带有不确定性为处理对象的特点,在2007—2012年的国内矿业安全生产事故统计数据的基础上,对2013年国内矿业安全生产事故总数进行建模预测。采用Matlab7.11编写灰色GM(1,1)模型的程序代码并进行实例验证。预测结果表明,模型精度等级为一级,预测结果可靠度较高,预测结果可为中国安全生产管理实践工作提供决策依据。实例研究表明,该方法在矿业安全管理中发挥了重要作用。

According to the grey theory with grey information characterized by uncertainty as processing datum, in order to predict and prevent accidents effectively, the paper built a grey model and forecast the mine accidents in Chi- na in 2013 based on the statistics of mine accidents happened in China during period from 2007 to 2012. Matlab7.11 is used to write procedure code of GM （ 1,1 ） and empirical verification follows. The prediction results show that if high accuracy goes with the precision of the calculable model, which could be used to provide the basis for decision making to the safety production management practices in China. This case study indicates that GM （ 1,1 ） plays an important role in mine safety management.