国际经济形势发展、影响及对策建议(2013)

The Development and Impact of International Economic Situation and Countermeasure Suggestions

2013年世界经济仍具有国际金融危机后恢复时期的特征,世界经济的运行依靠超宽松的货币政策和高额的财政赤字来维系,市场经济自身发展的能力还未完全恢复,经济复苏的强度低于预期。2014年我国所面临的国际经济环境会好于2013年,全球经济增长将走出底部;全球增长差别、货币政策分化、长期低利率的投资环境将对不同经济体形成不同的风险,美元强势和QE减量可能导致国际资本流动转向。需关注和应对新的风险。

In 2013, the world economy still preserves features of recovery stage in the post- global-financial-crisis period. Developed countries have no further economic stimulus plan, while the world economy still relies upon ultra-loose monetary policy and high fiscal deficit. What＇ s more, the ability of self-development of market economy has not yet fully recovered, and the economic recovery is lower than expected. The international economic environment of our country in 2014 will be better than that in 2013. By that time, the growth of the global economy will be out of its depression; differences in global growth, monetary policy differentiation, and long-term low interest rate environment for investment will form different risks in different economies; the strength of US dollar and the reduction of QE may lead to the turning of international capital flows. Therefore, people need to focus on and respond to new risks.