基于VAR模型的我国政府环境规制对低碳经济影响分析

The Impact of Chinese Government Environmental Regulation on Low-carbon Economy Based on VAR Model

运用VAR模型,构建政府环境规制投入与碳排放总量之间的动态关系系统,着重探讨二者之间的关系与影响规律。Granger因果关系分析表明,政府环境规制投入是引起碳排放总量变化的Granger原因。通过VAR(2)模型及脉冲响应分析表明,政府环境规制的程度能够对碳排放量产生较大影响,但是随着经济的高速增长带来大量的能源消耗,我国政府环境规制投入逐年递增的速度赶不上碳排放总量增长的步伐,以至于近年来对碳排放总量增长的抑制作用明显减弱,甚至不产生影响。中国发展低碳经济,必须重视进一步加强政府环境规制的力度,复合应用政府环境规制的各种手段。

Using VAR model, this paper constructs a dynamic relationship system between government environmental regulation and carbon emissions, focusing on the relationship and influence between the two laws. Granger causality analysis shows that government environmental regulation is the Granger reason which changes carbon emissions. According to the VAR （2） model and impulse response analysis, the extent of government environmental regulation can have a significant impact on carbon emissions. But due to the fact that rapid economic growth has brought a lot of energy consumption, the extent of government environmental regulations is slower than the growth rate of carbon emissions. In recent years, the government environmental regulation has no significant effect on carbon emissions. We should strengthen environmental regulation and apply various means of government environmental regulations to promote the development of a low carbon economy.