中国经济周期波动中冲击构成的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of Impact Composition in China's Economic Cycle Fluctuation

利用SVAR模型对中国经济周期波动中冲击构成进行分析,同时运用ADF单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等计量经济方法研究了产出、利率和财政支出与我国宏观经济波动的关系。研究结果表明:利率外生于系统,但产出和财政支出互为格兰杰因果关系;我国的货币政策在长期非中性,它可以直接影响到产出和其他实际变量;产出对源于产品市场的需求冲击和产品的供给冲击的响应均是正向的;经济周期波动中供给冲击所占比重小于需求冲击所占的比重。

This paper uses SVAR model to analyze the impact composition in China＇s economic cycle fluctuation, and uses econometric methods of the ADF unit root test, Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition to analyze the relationship between output, interest rates, fiscal expenditure and the macroeconomic fluctuation. From this research, the results show that the interest rate is born outside the system, but the output and fiscal spending are the relationship of Granger causality, China＇s monetary policy is not neutral in the long run, it can directly affect the output and other actual variables; Output of shock from the result of product market demand and product supply shock response are all positive; The proportion of economic cycle fluctuations in the supply shock is less than the demand shock.