人口老龄化影响居民消费水平的地区异质性分析——来自省际面板数据的经验证据

The Aging of the Population Heterogeneity Impact on Residents' Consumption Level——From the Experience Evidence of Provincial Panel Data

文章在全国各地区人口与消费统计数据的基础上,将人口老龄化作为影响因素引入消费函数面板模型中,实证判断各地区人口老龄化与居民消费的显著影响关系,得到结论:地区老年抚养比的增长,均会引起大部分地区平均消费倾向的下降,根据影响程度不同,各地区大致可分为三大类:老龄化严重影响居民消费、老龄化显著影响居民消费以及影响不大地区。文章给出了相应的解释,并得出启示:面对老年社会到来这个现实,要想人口老龄化不成为抑制消费的重要因素,需要大力发展社会经济,加强居民的社会保障,提高居民收入,为人口进入老年行列提供强大的经济后盾。

Based on the statistical data of population and consumption, the paper adds the aging of population factors into the consumption function panel model, and empirically judges the obvious influencing relationship between the aging of population and residents＇ consumption in each region. The conclusion is that： The average propensity to consume decreases with the elderly dependency ratio increasing. According to the influence degree, each area can be divided into three categories：Strongly impacted area, significantly impacted area, and no impacted area. This paper gives the corresponding explanation, and obtains the enlightenment： Facing the reality of aging society, and not letting the aging of the population become an important factor to curb consumption, we need to strengthen the development of social economy, improve people＇s social security, increase the income of residents, and provide powerful economic support for the population into the ranks of the elderly.