不同碳排放权分配方案下各国减排成本的比较

Comparative Study of Countries' Abatement Costs Under Different Carbon Emission Rights Allocation Schemes

通过碳税线性插值,从全球变化评估模型获取动态CO2边际减排成本曲线(MACs)。以此CO2MACs为工具,对国际社会12种典型碳排放权分配方案下2010-2050年间减排成本进行了测算和比较。本文考虑了一个完全竞争的碳排放权交易市场,以减排成本最小化为目标,研究结果表明:随着全球减排目标的不断提高,排放许可的价格迅速增长,但无论分配方案和全球减排目标如何,全球总减排成本占GDP比重均将在2040年达峰值;由于减排义务、MACs和GDP水平不同,各区域减排成本占GDP比重存在很大差别,分配方案是决定区域成本及其分布的最重要因素。相比发达国家,发展中国家的减排成本更显著地受到方案选择的影响;全球排放路径的选取不改变不同区域在给定方案下减排成本占比的排序,同时,它也不改变给定区域在不同方案下所需承担减排成本的相对大小;在10种方案下,中国在2010-2050年间的减排成本基本稳定在GDP的0.5%左右。

This paper derives the dynamic marginal abatement cost curves （MACs） of CO-2 from the Global Change Assessment Model through the linear interpolation of carbon tax. Taking these CO2 MACs as the tool, abatement costs in the period of 2010 -2050 are calculated and compared under 12 typical carhnn emission rights allocation schemes proposed in the international community. We consider a peri＇ectly competitive trade market of carbon emission allowance and aim at minimizing abatement costs. The results show that with the constant improvement of global reduction targets, the price of emission allowance increases rapidly. However, no matter what allocation schemes or global reduction targets are, the ratio of＇ global total abatement costs to GDP will peak in 2040. Due to different reductinn ohligatious, MACs and GDP levels, the ratio of abatement costs to GDP varies enormously among regions. Above all, the allocation scheme is the most crucial to determine regional abatement costs and their distributions. Compared to abatement costs in developed countries, those in developing countries are influenced by the scheme more significantly. The selection of global emission pathway has no impact on the sequence of the abatement costs to GDP ratio in different regions under a given scheme, or on the sequence of abatement costs in a given region under various schemes. We further find that tile abatement costs to GDP ratio in China almost stabilizes at 0.5% during the years 2010-2050 under 10 of the 12 schemes.