中国天然气供需重心迁移路径及贡献度分解

Gravity Center Evolution Paths and Contribution Decomposition of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in China

天然气作为优质、高效和清洁的能源正成为中国能源发展的关键,研究天然气供需重心迁移路径可以厘清天然气供需空间迁移的发展方向和平衡问题。本文首先分析了中国天然气供需现状,然后运用重心理论研究了中国天然气2000-2011年供需重心迁移路径,进而采用Shapley分解方法计算不同区域对重心迁移的贡献度。研究结果表明,天然气供需重心迁移路径不存在交叉,其中生产重心向西北方向移动,消费重心向东南方向移动,且天然气生产重心迁移量比消费重心迁移量大,消费重心变动比生产重心变动更加剧烈,天然气供需不均衡加剧。在天然气供需重心迁移过程中,西北片区对产量迁移的贡献度最大,华东片区对消费量迁移贡献度最大。根据天然气供需重心的迁移方向和区域贡献度可以发现,提高国内常规气田产能和非常规油气资源勘探开发力度,加大对国外天然气资源的开发利用,加强天然气管道和储气库等基础设施的建设是平衡天然气供需的关键。

As a kind of energy with good quality, high efficiency and less pollution, natural gas is becoming increasingly critical to the advancement of energy in China. Analyzing the evolution path of gravity center with regard to the supply and demand of nature gas can clarify its spatial ewolution and balancing issue. The present study measured how China＇ s natural gas production and consumption center had evolved from 2000 to 2011 adopting the theot7 of gravity center. Then, based on Shapley value, we calculated each region＇ s contribution to the evolution of gravity center. The resuhs showed that there was no cross connection between the supply evolution path aml the demand ew^lution path; the production gravity center moved towards the northwest, whereas the consumption gravity center moved towards the southeast; compared with production, the moving distance of consumption gravity center was shorter and the tloctuation was sharper; the unbalance between supply and demand was enlarging. During the evolution process, the northwest region made the greatest contribution to the production gravity center ew）lution, and the eastern region to the consumption gravity center evolution. According to the analyses of evolution paths and regional contributions, improving domestic productivity, exploring international natural gas, and speeding the construction of natural gas related infrastructures （ such as pipeline and gas storage tank） would play key roles in balancing the supply and demand of natural gas.