货币政策适度性的测度研究——基于协整方程的视角

Measurement on the Moderation of Monetary Policy:Based on the Co-integration Equation

近年来关于货币超发的争论一直没有中断,但至今还没有一个公认的衡量标准。借助协整方程把总产出与价格水平、货币供应量以及信贷投放联系在一起统筹考虑,并由此得出潜在的货币供给规则,在此基础上对1978年以来中国货币政策的适度性进行评估,结果表明当前中国经济系统接近均衡水平,货币政策在总体上是适度的。要支持8%的经济增长速度,同时使通货膨胀率控制在3%左右,则M2增幅应达到14.6%,信贷增幅应达到12.8%。

Debates about excess money have continued for several years. However, there is no measure method widely accepted so far. By applying co-integration model, this paper combines the total output with price, money supply and aggregate credit as a whole. On this basis, we deduce a latent monetary supply rule and appraise the moderation of Chinese monetary policy since 1978. The results show that the monetary policy is appropriate in general and Chings macro economy is almost in equilibrium. To support GDP growth rate of 8% and control inflation rate at 3%, M2 should rise 14. 6%, and loans should rise 12.8% year-on-year.