中国碳强度影响因素长期均衡与动态分析

Analysis of Long-run Equilibrium and Dynamic Impact among the Carbon Emission Intensity and Its Influencing Factors in China

选择人均GDP、能源强度、第二产业比重等三个影响因素变量,采用协整理论和误差修正模型分析中国碳强度与三个影响因素变量之间的长期均衡关系,再运用VAR模型的脉冲响应与方差分析等方法分析人均GDP、第二产业比重、能源强度对碳强度的动态影响。研究表明:从长期看,这三个因素对碳强度均产生正影响,其中能源强度对碳强度的影响最大;从动态影响来看,第二产业比重对碳强度影响最明显。因此,降低能源强度和第二产业比重能有效地减少碳强度,特别是调整降低第二产业比重既能提高能源利用率,同时又能减少碳强度。

Based on theory of cointegration, ECM（Error Correction Model） and VAR, this paper studies the influence among carbon intensity, per capita GDP, energy intensity and the second industry proportion. It draws a conclusion： energy intensity has a great influence on carbon intensity in a long run and the second industry proportion has a strong impact through dynamic analysis; reducing the proportion of secondary industry and energy intensity are the effective ways to decrease carbon intensity, the latter is better at present because it can increase energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions simultaneously.