情报分析中的逻辑推理误区及对策研究

Research on the Logical Reasoning Errors of Intelligence Analysis

当前广大情报工作者大多还未认识到逻辑推理失误的存在及其严重后果,这极大地损害了情报分析的质量。阐述了逻辑推理在情报分析中的作用,探讨了情报分析中存在的主要逻辑推理误区及其产生原因。在此基础上从教育、制度、资源整合以及历史借鉴等4个方面提出了克服逻辑推理误区的针对性建议,以期提高情报分析工作中逻辑推理的质量。

Under the influence of many factors, now most intelligence analysts are still not aware of the existence of logical reasoning er- rors and their severe consequences, which would severely damage the quality of intelligence analysis. This paper clarifies the roles of logi- cal reasoning in intelligence analysis, and explores the main logical reasoning errors existing in intelligence analysis and the main reasons. On this basis, it puts forward some suggestions to avoid logical reasoning errors from the aspects of education, institution, resource integra- tion, and implications from intelligence failures, so as to improve the quality of the logic reasoning in intelligence analysis.