我国环境事件生发机理的Logistics回归分析

Logistics Regression Analysis on Occurrence Mechanism of Environmental Events in China

以近年来我国发生的有影响力的100个环境事件为研究对象,通过多元Logistics回归方法,利用环境污染生境、污染主体特征、污染物特征、对象敏感性、社会敏感性、治理难度和治理效果7类变量23类观测指标解析了影响环境事件发生的显著因素。以此为基础,分别给出了控制和预防大概率小损失、大概率大损失、小概率小损失和小概率大损失环境事件发生的政策建议。

Selected one hundred environmental events which broke out recently and caused serious result, employed multi-variant Logistics regression, analyzed the significant factors which contributed to the occurrence of environmental events using seven kinds of variables （which included biological environment of pollution, pollution subject feature, pollution substance feature, objective sensitivity, social sensitivity, governance difficulty and governance effect） and twentythree indicators. Based on environmental events （with that, some suggestion are given to prevent the occurrence of different high probability cum low damage, high probability cum great damage low probability cum low damage, and low probability cum great damage） .