气象条件对乌—昌电网负荷的影响及预报模型研究

Research on Meteorological Forecast Model of Daily Electric Loads During Summer in Urumqi and Changji Area

利用乌鲁木齐和昌吉地区2008—2011年夏半年(4—9月)逐日电力负荷、气象要素观测资料和T639、ECMWF模式输出产品,分析了乌-昌地区日用电负荷的年、季、月变化特征及其与对应区域的气温、降水量、相对湿度、风速等的相关关系,并以前3年的对应资料建立了基于气象条件的电力负荷预报模型,并以2011年的资料进行预报效果独立样本检验。结果表明:乌-昌地区夏半年的电力负荷呈非常明显的逐年增长趋势,月、日变化与当地工农业生产、居民生活规律密切相关;与气温呈显著地正相关关系,与降水量、相对湿度呈显著地负相关关系;应用逐步回归方法分时段建立的逐日电力负荷的气象条件预报模型有很好的预报效果。

The change characteristics of electric loads and the correlativity between electric loads and tempera- ture, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed were studied using the daily electric loads data, meteorological data and T639, ECMWF data during the summer in Urumqi and Changji area from 2008 to 2011, then the me- teorological forecasting model is established previous 3 years and the effect of forecast was tested independent sample with the data of 2011. The results show that the electric loads have an obvious rising tendency year by year, and the monthly and daily variation were closely related with agriculture and industry production and the lives of local residents. The electric loads had a highly significant positive correlation to the air temperature and a negative correlation to the precipitation and relative humidity. The weather-based electric load forecast equations are set up according to meteorological conditions.