中国中部地区城市体系规模分布及演进机制探析

Size Distribution of Cities and Evolution Mechanism of Urban System in Middle Area of China

采用首位度指数、城市规模基尼系数及马尔可夫转移矩阵描述中部地区城市体系规模分布特征与变动规律，解析城市体系演进的自组织与他组织机制。结果显示：①1985～2010年中部地区城市首位度经历先上升后下降的趋势，武汉市的首位城市地位未变但呈弱化趋势；②中部地区城市规模基尼系数呈现出先上升后下降、再上升的变动过程，城市体系规模分布相对均衡但近年来差距呈微弱的扩大趋势。③中部地区城市体系发展总体处于上升期，不同类型城市之间转换较为平稳，重点城市的地位持续强化。④中部地区城市体系的演进受到以要素集聚、结构调整和科技创新等为代表的自组织机制和以政府调控为代表的他组织机制的共同作用。

In order to optimize the location and structure of regional cities, it is important to realize the city size distribution and the evolution mechanism of urban system. According to primacy index, Gini coefficient of city size and Markov transfer matrix, this article describes the size distribution of 81 prefectural-level cities in China＇s middle area over the period 1985-2010. Then self-organization and organization mechanism of ur- ban system＇s evolution are analyzed. Results show that the largest city grew more quickly than the others, lead- ing to a increasing primacy index from 1985 to 2000. But the primacy index has continued to fall since 2000 because of the fast growth of Zhengzhou. With the change of urban population in middle area of China, Gini coefficient of city size decreased after increasing, and increased again. The gap between city-size indicated the weak trend of widening since 2002. The Markov Chains analysis shows a low interclass mobility, the large cit- ies display higher persistence than the medium and small-sized cities. Transformations between different class- es of cities are stable and the importance of major cities is strengthened. The evolution of urban system in mid- dle area is affected by the mechanism of self-organization and organization. Self-organization is mainly repre- sented by agglomeration of production factors, industrial adjustment, and technological innovation. Organiza- tion is reflected in the role of government. Based on the above analysis, some recommendations are put for- ward. The orientation of city function should be appropriate to size distribution of cities. Both the mechanism of self-organization and organization should be considered to facilitate the harmonious development of urban system.