四川盆地大都市边缘区土地利用时空格局模拟——以资阳市雁江区为例

The Land Use Spatio-temporal Pattern Simulation in Metropolitan Fringe of the Sichuan Basin:A Case Study in Yanjian District,Ziyang City,Sichuan

以地处四川盆地成都1h经济圈内的资阳市雁江区为例，利用ETM影像和ALOS影像，通过决策树分类的方法，获取了区内2005年和2009年2期土地利用图。在此基础上，结合区内土地利用总体规划方案，选取与土地利用变化有关的社会经济因子和自然地理因子，运用CLUE．S模型对研究区2005～2020年的土地利用时空格局进行模拟，并对2009t地利用模拟数据进行验证，Kappa系数达到0．887，表明模拟成果精度较高。结果显示，CLUE．S模型模拟结果与土地利用总体规划的土地空间分布格局比较I勿合，能为成都平原地区县级城市的土地利用发展规划提供参考。

Nowadays with the rapid development of China＇s economy, the urbanization process has been acceler- ating significantly. Due to the obvious advantages of geographical location and led by large cities, the urbaniza- tion process of many satellite cities located in urban fringes of large cities have been speeding up. How to achieve the sustainable utilization of land resources has become the key issue that must be addressed to keep the urban development. Locating in the middle of the Sichuan basin, Yanjiang District, Ziyang is in Chengdu one-hour economical circle. Taking Yanjiang District as the study area and using the CLUE-S model （The con- version of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent）, this article made a dynamic simulation of spa- tial-temporal pattern of land use from 2005 to 2020 in study area and analyzed the characteristics of its land use and cover change. In the simulation research, by using ETM image and ALOS image as data source, land use data of 2005 and 2009 was obtained through decision tree classification. Thereinto, the data of 2005 was land use data of simulation initial year, and data of 2009 was verification data of simulation result. Gray model is applied to predict the demand for land use types of future years based on the data of land use in previous years.On this basis, combined with the general plan of regional land use, the paper selected socio-economic drive factors and physical geography drive factors which are relating to land use and land cove change, and simulated the spatial-temporal pattern of study area land use from 2005 to 2020 by using CLUE-S model.Lo- gistic model is used to calculate the correlation between types of land use of study area and socio-economic, physical geography drive factors.Then the validity of the prediction results in the study area is gotten through the ROC test.Afterwards based on the land use data of 2005, by inputting correct parameters into the CLUE-S model, The map of land use spatial pattern distribution of Jianyang County in 2009 and 2020 is simulated.Then the paper verified the accuracy of 2009 land use simulation result, of which the Kappa coefficient is 0.887. That showed the simulation results are of high precision. By using GIS （Geographic Information System）, the analysis of simulation results of 16 years（2005-2020） showed that in the study area ,cultivated land area re- duced significantly, garden plot area decreased slightly, and construction land and woodland area increased. Due to the strict water protection, the water area changed little. The simulation results and the land layout of general land use planning coincided highly with each other. That meant the CLUE-S model could simulate the land use and cover change of Sichuan basin hilly area more accurately, and could be used for reference in re- search of land use change of other cities in this area.