2013年11月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Assessment of risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China,November 2013

目的评估2013年11月中国(未包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法进行评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,11月仍将是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较高的月份之一,全国总报告事件数和病例数可能较10月有所升高。进入秋冬季天气转冷后,禽间禽流感病毒活动有可能趋于增强,在我国禽类养殖、流通、交易方式和人-禽接触(暴露)方式未得到根本性改变的前提下,未来数月我国发生人感染H7N9禽流感病例的风险将有所增加。世界卫生组织评估认为,中东呼吸综合征疫情目前尚未构成国际关注的突发公共卫生事件,但11月仍有部分麦加朝觐人员归国,相关省份仍需关注中东呼吸综合征传入我国的风险。我国北方地区已进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将有所增加。结论 2013年11月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,处于全年较高水平;需重点关注人感染H7N9禽流感、中东呼吸综合征、流行性感冒和非职业性一氧化碳中毒等引发的公共卫生风险。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in November 2013. Methods Expert counsel was conducted on the incidence data of public health emergency and communicable diseases reported in China through different channels. Results According to the surveillance data of communicable disease and public health emergency, the incidence of public health emergency in November might be higher than October. Due to the cold weather in winter, the activity of avian influenza virus will increase, so the risk of human infection with H7N9 virus in China would increase too in the next few months if the pattern of poultry raising, trade and human exposure remain same. Although the Middle East respiratory syndrome （MERS） epidemic has not been considered as a public health emergency with international concern according to the WHO, the risk of importation of MERS-Coronavirus still exists in some provinces due to the Muslim＇ s returning from Saudi Arabia in November. Coal-fired heating will be common in winter in northern China, the risk of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning will increase. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidences of public health emergency and communicable disease would be at higher levels in China in November 2013, which are similar to the same period in previous years. It is necessary to strengthen surveillance for human infection with A （H7N9） virus, MERS, seasonal influenza and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.