2013年4月20日芦山大地震中期预测的初步回顾和评述

Preliminary review of medium-term prediction for the Lushan earthquake occurred on April 20,2013

在2013年4月20日四川雅安芦山地震发生前,有多个中期预测,文中介绍和评述其中几个预测意见。它们预测的时间和震级与芦山地震都符合得相当好。它们预测地区在图1中标出,由邓志辉等提出的预测地区的北缘距芦山地震震中大约40km。这样一来,从中期预测角度来看,芦山地震可作为被成功预测的一个范例。许多科学工作者认为:由于对地震的宏观和微观形成过程了解很少,从而对许多经验性成功地震预测震例应采取否定的态度。芦山地震中期预测的成功震例表明上述悲观论调的依据不足。这说明,细心和智慧地使用已有的数据组合,可以得出成功的预测意见,正如立足于"大数据"兴起的新思维所主张的那样。

Before the appearance of Lushan earthquake on April 20,2013,there were many relatively well medium-term predictions,among which three essentially successful predictions including three elements（time,magnitude and region of the mentioned earthquake）are demonstrated in this article.Their predicted time and magnitude of the event agree well to that of the Lushan earthquake according to the requirements of mediumterm earthquake prediction,and their predicted regions are indicated in Fig.1,in which they are located not far from the epicenter of Lushan earthquake,the shortest distance is only about 40km between the epicenter and north boundary of the predicted region suggested by Deng Zhihui et al.（2012）.Therefore,from the view point of medium-term prediction,the Lushan earthquake can be considered as a well successful forecasting example.As usually known,a lot of scientists agree to the point view that we do not know much about the underlying micro and macro-processes related to earthquake,which leads to an attitude of negating most of empirical but successful earthquake predictions.Evidences suggested by successful medium-term predictions related to the Lushan earthquake present new challenges to the above-mentioned pessimistic view,and demonstrate that a careful and intellectual collection of data sets could lead to a successful prediction as emphasized by the new upsurge of a revolution of thinking based on so-called＂Big Data＂.