中国铜资源代谢趋势及减量化措施

Copper resource trends and use reduction measures in China

铜是中国的战略性资源,消费需求量大且进口依赖性高,由此引起的资源瓶颈和环境约束日益突出。该文基于物质流方法的存量预测模型,研究中国未来铜资源代谢趋势,并用情景分析方法比较3种减量化措施的资源环境影响。结果显示:中国铜资源需求量在2040年达到峰值并趋于稳定;2025年以后,再生铜将替代进口铜成为资源供给的主要来源;改变铜资源消费结构的短期效果显著;降低人均铜消费量的效果平稳;提高资源回收率虽然短期无效,但长期效果显著。为此,依照中国铜资源代谢趋势,当前应严格控制原生铜产能,在2010—2030年间大力发展再生铜;近期重点推进资源消费结构调整,降低人均资源使用;中长期则应致力于构建完善的再生资源回收体系。

Copper is strategic Chinese Resource bottlenecks and environmental constraints have become increasingly prominent due to the large consumer demand and high external dependence. This study analyzes the trends o{ Chinese copper resources using a stocks based prediction model based on a material flow analysis and then compares the resource and environmental impact of three measures using scenario analyses. The results show that after 2025, secondary copper will exceed imported copper as a main copper source. Demand for copper resources will peak in 2040 and then stabilize. Changes in the consumption structure are effective in the short-term with the effect of reduced per capita resource consumption more evenly spread. Improved resource recovery is not effective in the short-term but is effective in the long-term. Therefore, China must control domestic copper production capacity and vigorously develop the recycling industry from 2010 to 2030. Structural adjustments of resources and reduced per capita resource use will help in the short term, an efficient resource recycling system is needed in the long run.