基于关联耦合法探讨城市地下空间需求模型

Exploration on Demand Model of Urban Underground Space in View of Linkage Method

地下空间开发已成为中国发达地区向心式城市化的重要途径,对地下空间的需求评估为地下空间科学高效的开发提供了保障。目前地下空间需求评估常采用专家打分法、层次分析法等方法,但不能反映开发规模。本文以福州市中心城区为例,借助Arcgis建立城市地下空间需求模型。模型分为需求预测与相关规划校正两个步骤,其中需求预测运用关联耦合法,对地下空间需求较大的城市用地的地上建设量进行预测,通过停车、民防与商业三个主要功能的地上地下协调系数,推算其地下空间建设量。最后通过相关规划进行校正。与传统预测方法相比,此方法能结合地下空间的整体预测与专项规划,创建地下空间需求量数据库,为现有的需求评估方法提供重要的补充。

Exploitation of underground space has become an important way of the centripetal form of urbaniza tion. Demand evaluation of underground space before its exploitation is a definite way to realize its scientific and ef fective construction. The Delphi method, AHP method are common methods introduced in present literature for un derground space evaluation, but they cannot reflect the required scale of exploitation directly. This paper takes central urban area of Fuzhou city as a study case, and uses Arcgis software to build a Demand Model. The model consist of two main steps： the first one is forecast and the other one is revision of related plans. In the first part, the surface construction quantities which may have more underground space exploitation are calculated, and then the surfaceun derground coordinating ratios of parking, civil air defense, and commercial usage which are three main functions of underground space are formulated to forecast the underground construction quantities. In the second part, the result should be revised through related plans. Compared with the traditional forecast method, this method combines the comprehensive forecast and special planning to build a database of demand on underground space. So it＇ s an impor tant complement for the present method.